If OpenAI doesn't IPO, or if the IPO disappoints, its paper gains start reversing. The index funds that bought in at inflated valuations start selling. The feedback loop runs in reverse. That's how bubbles pop. Not always in a dramatic crash, but in a slow correction as the gap between paper profits and real cash flows becomes impossible to ignore.

AI can prepare a tax return. But is tax prep the bottleneck in your firm? If AI speeds up tax prep while the partner review queue moves at the same pace, your throughput remains the same. That’s the problem with applying cost accounting to the ROI of artificial intelligence.